Water Woes in a Woven World: The Economic and Trade Impacts of Water Stress

Abstract

Our study examines the intricate effects of climate change, trade dynamics, and water resources on global economic outcomes. Leveraging high-resolution satellite data, we create a detailed mapping from local climate shocks to country-level agricultural productivity. We then employ a structural trade model following Eaton and Kortum (2002) and explore the welfare implications of precipitation shocks across various scenarios through their impact on the agricultural sector. Our findings highlight significant heterogeneity in local productivity responses to precipitation, and the impact of precipitations can propagate via trade networks and production linkages. We demonstrate that trade and production networks can mitigate the impact of local precipitation shocks, though these effects may spill over into other sectors and regions through market interactions.

Publication
Working Paper